The NWS continues to monitor tropical development in the central Gulf of Mexico. The NHC may be writing advisories for this system within the next 24-36 hours… so stay tuned. The system is expected to move slowly northward through Sunday night.
While there remains quite of bit of uncertainty regarding the track and intensity of the system, what we do have reasonably good confidence in is for deep tropical moisture will persist over the forecast area (especially in Northeast Florida) through Monday. Periods of heavy rainfall appear to be the main impact to the Jacksonville forecast area at this time. Given this scenario, we can expect high rain chances persisting across most of Northeast Florida through Monday with the best chances in the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected and at this time rainfall amounts from Sunday through Monday will be in the range of 1-3 inches over northeast Florida and about 1-2 inches over southeast Georgia mainly south of Highway 84. Locally higher amounts possible in pockets.
In summary, the tropical low pressure in the Gulf will likely form into a tropical cyclone this weekend. Initially movement is northward slowly, but may become stationary at some point by early Monday. A very moist air-mass will persist over Northeast Florida and enable mainly late morning and afternoon showers and storms to develop. Minor to moderate flooding is projected at times.
Should you have additional questions, please call the National Weather Service in Jacksonville. A web briefing may be made available later today from our website when we have more details on the rainfall potential.
06-23-12
14:00 hrs