TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS…HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…20 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
2. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
3. THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ARE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND…MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. WHILE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER…ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
08-10-11
17:00 hrs